Considering that the Oscar’s are tomorrow night I figured if I was going to make predictions that I better make them now. So without wasting anymore time I’ll dive right in.
Here’s a list of the nominations so you can decide for yourself if I’m high or if I’m onto something.
Actually hold up, one or two clarifications, first I won’t be predicting Oscars for categories involved with short-films, foreign films, or documentaries because I saw maybe one from each category and I refuse to be one of those people who declare that a movie should win an award on the basis of “It’s the one I saw!”. It’s absolutely no reason for anything to win anything.
Secondly alongside my predictions for the Oscar winner I’ll also say what my own personal choice for each category, cause it’s just not as much fun if I don’t openly disagree with the academy.
I’ll start off the predictions with the big one, best picture. This took a lot of deliberating but I think the Academy is going to pick Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri as their winner. I personally would pick The Shape of Water as best picture, in the past five years there has only been one time that the same person wins best director and for best film, and frankly I would rather have Guillermo del Toro get his due for best director and let Three Billboards take best picture.
I guess I’ll just move onto best director since I pretty much already wrote that out. I think Guillermo del Toro is going to win for The Shape of Water as both the academy’s choice and as my own personal pick. Everything you commonly associate directors, the visual appeal of a film, the level of performance from actors and overall story telling is at a master level in The Shape of Water, it is in my mind the total package of a movie. I wouldn’t be that upset if Greta Gerwig picked this up for her film Lady Bird though.
I’d be very upset if Lead Actress doesn’t go the way I think it will. I think it’d be an absolute shame if Sally Hawkins didn’t win this Oscar for The Shape of Water. (No I won’t shut-up about this movie) The way Hawkins delivers on this huge range of emotions in a language not many people speak (her character is mute so it’s sign language) or just through body language is something to be marveled at. Just give her the award.
Speaking of just giving someone the award, the winner for Lead Actor is going to be Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour. It’s not really even much of a question. It’s kinda an Oscar bait movie and his performance is the only part of the bait that really works. Personally I think Timothée Chalamet gave the better performance in Call Me By Your Name he’s a young guy and he’ll have 100 million other chances to pick up another golden statue.
Suppose I’ll just round out the other two acting awards now. Supporting Actress looks pretty favored towards Allison Janney for I, Tonya a performance that didn’t really click for me, and I think that’s entirely because I’m too young. I never lived through the Tonya Harding era of figure skating. If it were my call though, I’d give it to Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird in a heartbeat.
Finishing up the acting section with Supporting Actor. Sam Rockwell will win for Three Billboards without a doubt in my mind. It’s a well deserved win as well. Now that he’s won an Oscar is it time to bring him back as Justin Hammer in the Marvel movies? Please?
Moving onwards to the Best Animated Feature category, and I’ll just say that when Pixar is on top of their game Pixar always wins this one, and Coco might actually be the pinnacle of Pixar films. It’s a shared pinnacle with Wall-E and The Incredibles but that’s beyond the point. Coco will win.
Let’s talk writing. The Oscar for Adapted Screenplay is almost certainly going to James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name. This film is a delightfully charming critical darling and it’s writing has an awful lot to do with that. Also the monologue near the end that’s spoken by Michael Stuhlbarg deserves some serious recognition. I’d personally give this award to Logan though. That film breathed some much need creativity into the superhero genre and also captured a lot of the magic of Westerns in its scope. R-rated superhero movies don’t tend to be favored in the eyes of the Academy though, unlucky.
For Best Original Screenplay I’m tempted to just say that Three Billboards is going to rack another one up, but I think this is where the Academy will give a nod to Jordan Peele and Get Out. Some idiots will cry racist when Get Out doesn’t win best picture without taking into consideration how few horror films typically do with regards to the Oscars and how crazy it is that Get Out nabbed 4 nominations in the first place. All deserved I’d say, but still pretty crazy. I’d personally go for Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon for The Big Sick as it’s a rom-com that has just as much heart as any of the other nominees.
Best Original Song is a tough one for me to pick. Do I go for the best song or the song that best works with the film and captures what the film is? I lean-to the latter of these and that’s why I’ve picked Mystery of Love by Sufjan Stevens from Call Me By Your Name as the winner. Remember Me from Coco is also a strong contender and my personal choice but remember when I said Call Me By Your Name is a critical darling? Yeah that’s why it’s gonna win.
Best Original Score isn’t hard to pick. Hans Zimmer is going to grab his first Oscar since The Lion King with Dunkirk. (yeah it’s been over 20 years since Hans freaking Zimmer won an Oscar.)
Cinematography. In my mind this is the bridge between the above awards that everyone cares about, and the technical awards that almost no one cares about. I think Hoyte van Hoytema will win for Dunkirk, but if I got to choose the winner it’d be Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049 a thousand time over.
Now the technical awards that few if anyone cares about outside of the people who work in those areas. I’m not going to go very in-depth on these choices because I’d rather not stick my foot in my mouth by espousing to know a lot of about these fields while making elementary level errors in my explanations.
Film Editing: Dunkirk will probably win, everyone and their grandma is talking about what a technical masterpiece this movie is, and I agree, but it was the emotion of Dunkirk that won me over. (Probably the most hipster comment I’ll make all year)
Keeping with the editing theme, Sound Editing. From my understanding this is about the types of sounds that are collected to be used in a film, and so I think Star Wars: The Last Jedi will pick this up and drive half of the Star Wars fan-base absolutely bonkers as The Last Jedi becomes Oscar winner The Last Jedi.
Sound Mixing is the obvious cousin to Sound Editing and is basically for what you do with the sounds in a film once their collected. For this I’m leaning on Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis for Baby Driver. This film is a dream come true in terms of its use of sound and that’s all I’ll say.
Moving onto Production Design I think again this award is going to go to Dunkirk because of the whole muh technical masterpiece thing, but I’d give it to Blade Runner 2049. To be fair though, I’d give Blade Runner 2049 every award I could because it’s the best.
The Oscar for Makeup and Hairstyling is unique in that there are only three nominees. Seems pretty odd to me that Star Wars: The Last Jedi couldn’t even manage a nomination, but in the end that just means less competition for Darkest Hour. Unless something crazy happens this award is a lock.
Speaking of locks, Darkest Hour is going to nab another Oscar for Costume Design this Sunday. I myself might have been tempted to give this to Beauty and the Beast but that’s just me.
Okay, last award I’m talking about. Promise. Visual Effects. Ya know what? I honestly think the academy is going to give this one to Blade Runner 2049 and it’s not just because I’m a fanboy. The visual effects in this movie are out of this world, but also like really of this world. It’s kinda the a thing in world of Blade Runner to be both. Actually they’ll probably go with War for the Planet of the Apes since that’s like an absurd amount of work to make the apes look as good as they did.
Alright I’m done. Talk to you all at a later date. Peace out.
Image credits to Digital Spy, Fox Searchlight Pictures, Warner Bros. Pictures, and Sony Pictures Classic.